How To Always Win Soccer Bets
WAIT!!!! Don’t throw in the hat yet. How much have you rake in since you started online soccer betting or have you lost more or much that you become so frustrated and disappointment that makes you feel like quitting. Well, this article will guide you to your next step in redressing your steps and making you put in best stakes in order to win.
- Here we bring you our upcoming sure bet predictions for today. By sure bets, we mean games where we are at least 85% confident that wins will be as we've predicted for each of the teams. While we class the football predictions shown here as safe bets or sure wins, they don't guarantee success.
- This is another example of, with a bit of astute application of knowledge, how to always win football bets. Accumulators The accumulator, or acca, is the bet that can go so right, or so wrong, because of its increased level of risk. What you do is put together a series of bets, usually on the same thing, across multiple matches.
- If Team A is favored by -0.5, -1 or -1.5, they need to win by at least one goal for -0.5, and at least two goals for -1 and -1.5 for your bet to be graded a winner. A one-goal win on a bet of -1 would result in a push and your stake returned.
Don’t Guess To Win! Every time you loose you tell yourself that you are going to WIN your NEXT Soccer Bet. Does it happen that you win that next bet? Did that next bet really come? NO!!! You loose again and you tell yourself again that you are going to win your next bet this time. And it never ends! If you give me your 5 minutes, I will whisper in your ears about how you can win your bets and live the life you always dream about.
There is always a favorite, designated with a plus (+) symbol and an underdog that is represented with a minus (-1) symbol. Hoped you learned a thing or two on how you can win real money by betting on soccer. There are many kinds of types of soccer bets so it makes sense to try a few soccer betting sites out first to see which is the right fit.
If you think that betting is about luck then I promise to give you your luck Today…..Now! Do you want it today? If yes then stay with me for 4 more minutes. From today you will not gamble with football betting but will start investing in football betting because I am going to show you my secrets.
I have been betting on soccer matches for last 10 months. I don’t have a regular job because I don’t need it! I bet to support my family so if I loose my soccer bets; my income depreciates. In the first week of my betting career, I lost a lot of bets because I did not know how to win; I was just like you. Then I found the magic formula to win the soccer bets. I will tell you about it very soon. since then I have raked in close to 2,000,0000 NGN from nairabet,nairastake,naijabet,1960bet and 9japredict online soccer betting sites.I have given part of my time to soccer betting. In last 10 months, I learnt about every team, every player, and every football ground, mental condition of players in good and bad times. I have recorded in which session which team scores the maximum goals, especially in the Wales, Italy lega segunda pro A & B divisions, Swedish, Brazilian and Spanish segunda divisions
I experienced the point where a team loses the match. In all these months, I made some great friends who are bettors and data analysts. I have learnt a lot from them also BUT……I have not given them my magic formula. Because I know that with that magic formula you can not loose.
Important: Win Today To Bet Tomorrow
This is very important to understand that you should win today and bet from this money tomorrow. When you do this, you will soon have a lot of cash and you can just invest that extra cash in side businesses like opening a hotel and others. You keep betting and investing in other businesses. Very soon, you’ll have cash coming to you without doing anything. There will be workers running your businesses and giving you the profit money. BUT……. If you keep betting without winning; you will be on road very soon. So pay attention and listen.
Secret Magic Formula: Do you want to know the secret magic formula to win every day?
I have never told my soccer betting magic formula to anyone and that’s why only I know how to do it. Because you promised me to stay with me for 5 minutes; I am giving you one point of the formula. And that magic point is “There are no favorites in soccer betting.” Well, let me tell you that in football betting favorites change every minute. Yes, EVERY MINUTE! So when you bet on your favorite or on others’ favorite; you will loose. I know you are interested in knowing the complete formula to win your soccer bets because every bettor needs it. But this formula is very tough so you may find it tough to calculate the things. That’s why I have a unique and easy way to help you use this formula.
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How To Always Win Soccer Bets
Soccer betting is all about taking the right decision at the right time. You have already taken the first step staying with me. I am opening the doors of my secret betting formula but – for short time. I am offering your luck to you in 2 sweet ways: I know the cost is low now because I have already WON so much in my life. I am offering it only to help very few bettors who really want to win every day. I will increase the price on Saturday, 26th August 2012 11:59 PM.I know that you love the bettor who WON the last bet. I want you to be that bettor and then other bettors will love you, your friends and society will love you. You will never be in doubt like “Should I bet on this match or not?”. It’s exciting to feel when you WIN your bet and these secret tips will make you feel it always. Remember, I have a family to support and I use these same results to win every day.. I recommend you to ORDER NOW before I close the offer.
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David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and how mathematics can be used to get an edge in betting.
There is an urban legend of mathematical modelling of soccer matches. It is the legend of the mathematical genius, the Einstein of gambling, who has worked out the formula for beating the bookmakers and winning money. If only, the legend goes, you can find the tips that this person can provide, the source of the magic equation, you can become rich beyond your wildest dreams.
After I published the book Soccermatics last year, a few people seemed to believe I might hold the magical equation. I would get messages on Twitter and emails to my work address asking me if I could help them with tips and advice. I was a professor of mathematics who had studied soccer, maybe I knew the secret?
A simple way to find value in the betting market
In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else.
The way I did it was much simpler. I looked at the odds and found a very small but significant bias in how they were set. Bookmakers and bettors hadn’t paid enough attention to predicting the draw in soccer.
Maybe it is because of the popularity of the Over/Under markets. Maybe it is because bettors don’t like betting on a draw. But, whatever the explanation, it turned out that draws in the Premier League were not properly priced.
- Read: How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market.
Below is a plot of the real frequency of draws in four seasons of the Premier League (2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15) and the prediction of draws implied by the bookmaker’s odds.
This figure is created by taking the odds provided by four leading bookmakers (including Pinnacle), converting odds to implied probabilities and then looking at the difference between the probability of a home win and an away win.
It turns out that when two well-matched teams meet (i.e. the probability of a home win is only slightly bigger than the probability of away win) then draws are under-priced (circles above red line). When matches are skewed so there is a strong a favourite (i.e. the probability of one team or the other winning is larger than the other) then draws are over-priced (circles below red line).
Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a value bet. If one team is much stronger than the other, don’t bet on the draw (betting on the favourite is normally the smartest move in this case).
Testing out the theory of under-priced draws
That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. Below are profits for this model for the 2015/16 season.
I tripled my money over the season. Well, actually I didn’t bet throughout the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas.
Soccermatics came out in May 2016, just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after. Here is the result.
Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Not losing money is a small achievement in itself, where the odds are in the bookmaker’s favour, but obviously making money is the objective for most bettors.
Lessons learn from using my model
There are four lessons to be learnt from my model.
Firstly, I didn’t make money by creating a magic formula. Although I did write down a single equation that I then used to decide my bets (it is footnote 17 for chapter 12 in the book if you don’t want to read the rest of it) this equation came from an analysis of the odds.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.
If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Secondly, I wasn’t just lucky. The original model was consistent with the previous four years of bookmaker’s odds. I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data.co.uk. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work.
There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.
Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. Maybe the traders at Pinnacle and other bookmakers read my book and thought “we’ve been pricing draws wrong. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend….move the draw odds up by 0.1.” That’s all it takes and my small margin disappears.
This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book). There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear.
Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.
- How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
How To Win Football Bet
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
How To Always Win Soccer Bets Against
If you want to learn more about David Sumpter's work you can follow @Soccermatics on Twitter.